NEWS

*The U.S. agricultural trade deficit for the first six months of this year reached a record high at $28.6 billion, up $10 billion from the same period last year. The United States has faced an agricultural trade deficit since 2022. That’s after decades with a trade surplus. The Trump administration’s tariff strategy is designed to address unfair trade practices by other countries.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.00 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 5.4 million bushels (mb) of corn to South Korea, 12.4 million bushels of corn to Mexico and 5.2 million bushels of corn to Spain.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Aug. 7, were 58.7 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 50.6 mb and continuing to run at a rather impressive pace having averaged 52.1 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 42.5 mb/week average during the same period. Now with only three full weeks remaining in the 2024-25 U.S. corn marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 2.485 billion bushels are up 29% from last year’s 1.927 billion vs. the USDA’s 2.750 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 22% increase in exports from 2023-24. Corn inspections would be able to average only 19 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s annual export projection.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn conditions fell 1% from the prior week to 72% good/excellent vs. 72% expected, 73% last week, 67% last year. Despite the seasonal decline, conditions remain the best in nine years for mid-August. Ninty-four percent of the crop is silking, 58% is in the dough stage and 14% is denting.

In the August WASDE report, the average U.S. corn yield came in at 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa) vs. trade expectations of 184.2. This is a new all-time record for corn yields and up 7.8 bpa from the July estimate. Total corn production was forecast at a new record of 16.742 billion bushels (bb), well above trade expectations of 15.978 bb. Harvested acres increased by 1.9 million from July to 88.691 million vs. 86.774 million previously. Corn new crop ending stocks jumped 457 mb from last month to 2.117 bb vs. pre-report estimates of 1.930 bb and July estimates of 1.660 bb. The USDA increased old crop exports by 70 mb but lowered feed and residual by 35 mb; increased feed and residual usage by a whopping 250 mb, ethanol usage by 100 mb and exports by 200 mb. If the export forecast of 2.875 bb is realized, this would be a new record. The new planted acreage figure is a new all-time record, eclipsing the previous acreage total of 2012 of 97.2 million acres. Since 2005, the USDA has only adjusted corn acres five times from June to the August report, with this year being the only increase in acres.

In the weekly EIA report, ethanol average daily production for the week ending Aug. 8 averaged 1.093 million barrels, a new high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.072 million barrels per day in 2024. This was up 1.1% from last week and up 2% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.006 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.651 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.649 million barrels. This was the lowest since Dec. 13, 2024, down 4.7% from last week and down 3% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 22.452 million barrels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on rallies as the window for summer marketing is slowly closing.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.56 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. soybean conditions fell 1% from the prior week to 68% good/excellent vs. 68% expected, 69% last week and 68% last year. This crop is the second best in nine years for mid-August. Ninty-one percent of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 19 mb were down from the previous week’s 23.1 mb but continuing to run solidly above last year’s same-week exports of 12.9 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean exports reflected a solid improvement from levels during much of May-June, having averaged 17.9 mb/week vs. 10.2 mb/week during the prior nine-week period, while also running solidly better than the 12.5 mb/week during the same four-week period last year. Soybean inspections would only need to average roughly 11 mb/week over the final few weeks of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s export projection. Cumulative soybean inspections of 1.777 billion bushels are up nearly 12% from last year’s 1.594 billion vs. the USDA’s annual export projection, reflecting an expected 10% increase from last year.

The USDA reported US soybean yields at 53.6 bpa, larger than what the trade was expecting of 52.9 bpa. Harvested acres were estimated at 80.104 million vs. pre-report estimates of 82.565 million vs. July estimates of 86.271 milllion. Total production now is forecasted at 4.2992 bb vs. expectations of 4.370 bb vs. July estimate of 4.335 bb. U.S. soybean ending stocks fell to 290 mb vs. expectations of 358 mb. The seeded acres are the smallest since the 2019 growing season. The USDA lowered old crop ending stocks by 20 mb and reduced new crop exports by 40 mb and residual usage by 3 mb.

The monthly NOPA crush report saw July crush at 195.699 mb, a new record for the month vs. 191.6 mb estimated, 185.3 mb last month and 182.9 mb last year. Soybean oil stocks are estimated at 1.379 bp vs. 1.380 bp estimated, 1.384 bp last month and 1.499 bp last year. Stocks remain at 21-year lows on a same-month comparison basis.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should look to add 2025 hedges on late season rallies.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.08 1/2 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.07 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 13.4 mb were down from the previous week’s 25.3 mb, last year’s same-week exports of 24.6 mb and the most-recent four-week average exports of 19.8 million bushels. Through the first 10 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year, cumulative wheat export inspections of 161 million bushels are up marginally from last year’s 157 million, running in line with the USDA’s 850 million bushel export projection reflecting an expected 3% increase in exports from 2024-25. In order to reach the USDA’s current export target, wheat inspections would need to average roughly 15.8 million bushels/week through the end of next May vs. last year’s 15.1 million/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% good/excellent vs. 48% expected, 48% last week and 72% last year. Spring wheat harvest is 16% complete vs. 14% expected, 5% last week, 16% last year and 22% average, while winter wheat harvest advanced to 90% complete vs. 92% expected, 86% last week, 92% last year and 91% average.

U.S. all-wheat production was pegged at 1.927 bb vs. pre-report expectations of 1.923 bb. Spring wheat production came in at 484 mb vs. pre-report estimates of 495 mb vs. July estimates of 504 mb. The USDA changed very little on the U.S. balance sheets with exports increased by 25 mb and food usage decreased by 5 mb, leading to U.S. new crop wheat ending stocks of 869 mb vs. pre-report estimates of 883 mb vs July estimates of 890 mb.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry.

LIVE &

FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $4.65 higher while feeder cattle closed $6.12 higher.

The results at this week’s OKC auction were mostly higher; feeders $3 to $12 higher, except steers greater than 800 pounds, which were steady to $3 lower, calves $4 lower to $5 higher. Receipts totaled 5,600 head.

Retail beef prices for July came in much higher, with all-fresh beef coming in $0.75 higher than a year ago and $0.27 higher than a month ago at $8.90/pound. Ground beef came in at $6.25 a pound, which is $0.13 up from a month ago. This is a 9.2% increase for all-fresh beef and a 13.8% increase for ground beef when compared to their year-ago prices, which is reflective of continued strong consumer demand.

The USDA reduced their 2025 beef production estimate by 260 million pounds, and then 2026 by 350 million pounds, citing the slowed slaughter rates, slowing placements, and some lighter carcass weight adjustments as well in the supply/demand report.

Last week, in the North, trade was moderate to active at $243 to $245 live and $380 to $385 dressed, which is steady to slightly firmer than last week. The South saw limited trade early this week, steady with last week at $237 live. More trade was noted in the South this afternoon at $235 live. As far as boxed beef markets go, the cutout closed higher this week with Choice rising by $14.85/cwt. and Select increasing $13.13/cwt.

Boxed beef sold for export has plunged in relation to last year. Last week, boxed sales declined 155 loads from the prior week to 609 loads for a 20% decline. However the year-to-year decline for last week declined 981 loads for a 62% decline. Boxed beef export sales for the year through last week were 2,562 loads behind last year for a year to date decline of 9%.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were steady with last week at 941 pounds, which is 18 pounds above year-ago levels.

Last week, net beef sales of 4,300 mts for 2025, a marketing year low with shipments of 11,440 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the third quarter of 2025 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management as supplies increase and demand slows.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $.42 lower.

The USDA’s monthly supply/demand update featured a sizable 290 million pounds downward adjustment in their 2025 pork production estimate.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Aug. 9 has weights unchanged at 281.1 pounds vs. 281.1 pounds last week and 281.0 pounds last year.

Last week, net pork sales were 21,200 mts for 2025 with shipments of 27,000 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Supplies should increase into the late third and fourth quarters, which will weigh on values.