NEWS

*Pending court approval, Cargill and Tyson Foods have agreed to settle a price-fixing lawsuit. The companies were accused of conspiring to restrict beef supplies to boost prices. To settle the case, Cargill will pay $32.5 million and Tyson will pay $55 million. Litigation continues against JBS USA and National Beef Packing.

*Ag reality television star and Missouri farmer Steve A. McBee was sentenced to 41 months in prison on Thursday and ordered to pay $4 million in restitution after pleading guilty to crop insurance fraud committed on his farm in Gallatin, Missouri.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.09 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Oct. 9, were 44.5 million bushels (mb), down from the previous week’s 67.0 mb and were the lowest of the first six weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year so far. Cumulative corn export inspections of 313 million bushels are up notably from last year’s slow-starting 190 million bushels, leaving weekly inspections needing to average roughly 52.9 million bushels/week over the remainder of 2025-26 to reach the USDA’s latest U.S. corn export projection of 2.975 billion bushels vs. last year’s 53.1 mb/week average from this point forward.

A Bloomberg survey estimated U.S. corn harvest at 45% complete vs. 47% last year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol daily production for the week ending Oct. 10 averaged 1.074 million barrels. This is a new high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.042 million barrels per day in 2024. This was up 0.3% from last week and up 3.1% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.012 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.518 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.628 million barrels. This was down 0.4% from last week and up 1.6% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 21.017 million barrels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

An early harvest low has been achieved, as the USDA has already issued what will likely be their largest yield estimate of the year.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.14 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 36.5 mb, up from the previous week’s 38.8 mb, were the highest of the first six weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year. That said, though, soybean inspections this week were sharply below last year’s same-week exports of 70.1 mb as 2024-25 marketing year soybean exports ramped sharply higher starting the previous week, as is typically the case this time of year, but will not be seen in similar fashion this year given the lack of an export program to China amid the ongoing trade war.

Soybean export inspections over the next seven weeks last year averaged 85.8 million bushels/week, a level that very likely won’t come close to being met this year, leaving the year-over-year shortfall in soybean exports likely to expand substantially over the next several months. Cumulative soybean export inspections currently stand at 149 million bushels, down 26% from last year’s 201 million, leaving weekly soybean inspections needing to average roughly 32 million bushels/week over the remainder of 2025-26 to reach the USDA’s current 1.685 billion bushel export projection, which clearly appears too high, vs. last year’s 35.4 mb/week average from this point forward last year.

A Bloomberg survey estimated U.S. soybean harvest at 60% done vs. 67% a season ago.

The monthly NOPA September U.S. Soybean Crush report saw September crush at 197.86 million bushels vs. expectations of 186.3 mb and the prior month of 189.810 mb. This was a new record for the month of September and the fourth highest monthly total on record. NOPA September Soyoil Stocks were reported at 1.243 billion pounds vs. expectations of 1.22 billion pounds and the prior month of 1.245 billion pounds.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should sell inventory and re-own with options.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.05 3/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.08 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 16.3 mb slipped from the previous week’s 20.1 mb and were the lowest in five weeks. Over the last four weeks, wheat inspections averaged 25.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 18.6 mb/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative export inspections of 392 million bushels to move to an 18% gain to last year’s 332 million through the first 19 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year.

In order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 14.6 mb/week through next May vs. last year’s 13.9 mb/week average from this point forward.

A Bloomberg survey is estimating winter wheat seedings at 65% done vs. 64% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.60 lower while feeder cattle closed $4.90 lower.

Last week, a light trade developed in most areas. Northern dressed deals are marked at mostly $372, $9 higher than last week’s weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live deals are at $240, $5 higher (basis Kansas) than last week’s very limited transactions.

Boxed beef sold for export last week, and it was the fourth consecutive week that export sales exceeded the prior year. At 568 loads, sales were 437 loads below the prior week but 225 loads above the same week last year. Year-to-date total sales were 31,634 loads compared to 34,070 loads last year for a 7.1% year-on-year decline.

Sharply higher results were seen in OKC; feeder steers up $10 to $20, feeder heifers up $5 to $15, steer and heifer calves up $20 to $30, with demand called extremely good for all classes. Receipts totaled 5,500 head, in line with the prior week, but down from 6,825 last year.

The latest CattleFax estimate for steer carcass weights were up 7 pounds from last week at 973 pounds which is 13 pounds above year-ago levels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1st quarter of 2026 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management as demand slows.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.60 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Oct. 4 has weights at 289 pounds vs. 287.9 pounds last week and 284.8 pounds last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Fourth quarter values are already discounted to the cash markets, posing limited downside risks.