NEWS

*Hansen-Mueller Co. has operations in 11 states including Alabama, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Louisiana. At the end of last week, the Nebraska Public Service Commission suspended Hansen-Mueller’s grain dealers license in the state after 38 farmers reported they had not been paid for grain totaling about $2 million. So far, the Omaha-based Hansen-Mueller has not filed for bankruptcy in the state. In addition, DTN’s search of court records in states where the company operates have turned up with no cases filed against the company.

*NFA has ordered VBI Company, a former NFA member introducing broker headquartered in Sioux Falls, S.D., not to reapply for NFA membership or apply for principal status with an NFA member at any time in the future. NFA has also ordered Peter Mark Vanden Berge, a former associated person and principal of VBI, not to apply for NFA membership or reapply for NFA associate membership or principal status with an NFA member for six months. In the complaint, the BCC alleged that VBI failed to maintain all required pre-trade communications, and, together with Vanden Berge, failed to diligently supervise the firm. In its decision, the NFA Hearing Panel found that Vanden Berge committed the violation alleged against him in the Complaint.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.04 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Oct. 30, were 65.7 million bushels (mb), up solidly from the previous week’s 42.6 mb and significantly above last year’s same-week exports of 31.5 mb. The overall U.S. corn export pace to start the 2025-26 year continues at an impressive level, having averaged 53.6 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 31.3 mb/week average during the same period with cumulative export inspections through the first nine weeks of 2025-2026 of 483 million bushels up 64% from last year’s slow-starting 294 million bushels at the same time. Cumulative corn export inspections of 483 million bushels are the highest for the end of October/early November in 45 years, second only to 1980-81’s 508 million over the last 53 years. Given the strong start to this year’s export program, corn export inspections will need to average roughly 52.6 mb/week over the remainder of 2025-26 to reach the USDA’s latest U.S. corn export projection of 2.975 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 54.3 mb/week average from this point forward.

A Bloomberg survey suggested that U.S. national corn harvest should be near 85% complete vs. 73% last week and 91% done last year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Oct. 31 averaged 1.123 million barrels. This is a new all-time high daily production. The previous high was 1.120 million barrels per day on June 6, 2025. This was up 2.9% from last week and up 1.6% from last year. Ethanol production for the week was 7.861 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.655 million barrels. This was up 1.3% from last week and up 2.9% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 21.001 million barrels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

An early harvest low has been achieved as the USDA has already issued what will likely be their largest yield estimate of the year.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.02 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 35.5 mb but slipped from the previous week’s 42.6 mb and continue to run sharply below last year in the absence of a U.S. export program to China, for now, as last year’s same-week exports were 85 mb. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 43.5 mb/week vs. last year’s 86.4 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections now at only 286 million bushels, down 40% from last year’s 476 million and the lowest for late October/early November in 16 years. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.685 billion bushel export projection, soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 31.1 million bushels/week through the end of August, nearly identical to last year’s 31.4 mb/week average from this point forward.

A Bloomberg survey estimated U.S. soybean harvest 91% done vs. 86% last week and 94% last year.

The monthly Census crush was not held but a Bloomberg newswire survey estimated September total soybean crush at 205.4 million bushels, a record high for the month and up from 186.5 mb last year. August crush was estimated at 196.9 mb but that report was not released either. Trade estimates range from 200.0 to 208.0 million bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should sell inventory and re-own with options.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.06 1/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.04 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 12.9 mb were up modestly from the previous week’s 9.9 mb, which were the second lowest of the 2025-26 marketing year so far, and above last year’s same-week exports of 8.0 mb. That said, the overall wheat export pace so far this year has been solid with cumulative export inspections of 435 million bushels up 21% from last year’s 361 million as wheat shipments over the last four weeks averaged 14.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 10.7 mb/week average during the same period. Moreover, total wheat inspections as of late October/early November are the highest in nine years, going back to 2016-17. In order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, which would be up 9% from 2024-25’s 826 million, wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 14.7 mb/week through the end of next May vs. last year’s 14.4 mb/week average from this point forward.

A Bloomberg survey is estimating winter wheat seedings should be near 92% complete vs. 85% last week and 87% last year with winter wheat conditions 52% good/excellent vs. 50% last week and 41% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $7.92 lower while feeder cattle closed $12.65 lower.

The USDA announced they would release the November cattle on feed report on Nov. 21 as scheduled.

Last week, there was active trade in the North at $228 to $230 live and $358 to $360 dressed, which compared to last week is moderately lower. The South saw light to moderate trade at $232 live, coming in $3 to $4 below last week’s trade. In the boxed beef markets, the cutout was steady this week. The Choice cutout decreased $0.30/cwt., and the Select increased $1.24/cwt.

Last week’s boxed beef sales for export declined 101 loads from the prior week for a 13% decline. The weekly total was 29 loads above the same week last year for a 4% increase. With less than two months to go until this year ends, the total boxed beef sales for export are 3,295 loads below last year through last week for year-on-year decline of 9%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026 is bullish due to tight supplies, however locking in minimum price levels with put options is good risk management as demand slows.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.72 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Nov. 1 has weights at 291.6 pounds vs. 291.2 pounds last week and 285.8 pounds last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Fourth quarter values are already discounted to the cash markets, posing limited downside risks.