NEWS

*On Air Force One, President Donald Trump met with reporters ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. When asked about his telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump said agricultural trade was part of the discussion. “I said I’d like you to buy a little faster and I’d like you to buy more and he’s more or less agreed to do that,” said Trump. “I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the actions of President Xi.”

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are “right on schedule.” Reuters is reporting that China purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Tuesday. China is committed to the purchase of 12 million metric tons of soybeans before the end of the year.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.2 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.0 million bushels (mb) of corn to Columbia and 15.5 mb of corn to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Nov. 27, were 56 million bushels, down from the previous week’s 66.8 mb while continuing to run solidly above last year’s slow-starting export program, which saw exports this week last year at 37.4 mb. Over the last four weeks, corn inspections averaged 65.6 mb/week vs. last year’s 35.8 mb/week average during the same period, as cumulative corn export inspections, through the first 13 weeks of 2025-26 of 747 million bushels are up 71% from last year’s 438 million. In order to reach the USDA’s 3.075 billion bushel export projection, corn inspections will need to average roughly 53.8 mb/week through the end of next August vs. last year’s 56.2 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Nov. 28 averaged 1.126 million barrels. This is a new all-time high daily production. The previous high was 1.123 million barrels per day on Oct. 31, 2025. This was up 1.2% from last week and up 4.9% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.047 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.882 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.511 million barrels. This was up 2.5% from last week and down 2.1% from last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

An early harvest low has been achieved as the USDA has already issued what will likely be their largest yield estimate of the year.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.32 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 17 mb of soybeans to China.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 33.8 mb were up slightly from the previous week’s 29.7 mb while continuing to run sharply below last year’s export program, which saw 77.5 mb of soybeans shipped during the same week. Over the last four weeks, soybean inspections averaged 37.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 81.4 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative soybean export inspections of 436 million bushels hitting another marketing year-high deficit to last year’s 802 million of 46%. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.635 billion bushel export projection, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 29.3 mb/week through the end of next August vs. last year’s 26.3 mb/week average from this point forward.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should sell inventory and re-own with lower risk options.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.02 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.03 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 14.1 mb were down from the previous week’s 17.7 mb but above last year’s same-week exports of 11 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat inspections averaged 12.9 mb/week vs. last year’s 11.2 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 486 million bushels maintaining a 20% increase vs. last year’s 405 million, now halfway through the 2025-26 marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 15.0 mb/week through the end of next May, essentially identical to last year’s 14.9 mb/week average from this point forward.

Stats Canada released their crop production report, raising their all wheat crop estimate to 39.955 mmts from 36.624 mmts estimated in September and well above estimates of 39.49 mmts. This would be a new all-time Canadian wheat crop production figure, surpassing the 2013-14 crop year’s 37.6 mmts. The spring wheat crop was estimated at 29.259 mmts vs. 26.608 mmts in September and 26.515 mmts last year. The oat crop was estimated at 3.92 mmts vs. 3.66 mmts estimated and 3.337 mmts last September.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $9.55 higher while feeder cattle closed $15.92 higher.

Last week, trade in the North has been moderate to active at $220 to $225 live with some dressed trade at $340 to $345. This is $15 to $17 higher live and $10 to $15 higher dressed when compared to the prior week. The South has seen light trade at $225 to $226.50 live, which is $5 to $10 higher than the prior week’s prices. The beef cutout was slightly softer with the Choice losing $5.56/cwt. and the select decreasing $5.19/cwt.

Boxed beef sold for export last week, posted the largest weekly increase of the year and the largest weekly total for 2025, which was also the second largest weekly total since the week of Aug. 10, 2024. At 1,425 loads, exports were 966 loads above the same week last year for a 22% increase. Total loads sold through last week were 3,538 loads below last year at 36,373 loads for a 9% year-on-year decline.

At the Oklahoma City auction on Monday, feeder steers and heifers traded $8 to $25 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded $20 to $40 higher. Demand was good with 4,500 head traded vs. 3,302 head last week and 10,398 head last year.

At the Joplin auction on Monday, supply was noted as moderate with demand very good: 6,774 head traded at $5 to $25 higher vs. 8,615 head last week and 9,615 head last year.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 36 pounds from a year ago, moving to 988 pounds. This is 2 pounds higher than last week.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however the technical trend is lower and fund selling is weighing on values. Hold hedges until cash sales are made.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.15 higher. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Nov. 15 has weights at 292.5 pounds vs. 291.9 pounds last week and 287.4 pounds last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

A large discount to the cash markets should provide limited downside risk.