NEWS

*The North Dakota Department of Agriculture is seeking to recover a $778,000 surety bond in the Hansen-Mueller Chapter 11 bankruptcy case. A motion has been filed in U.S. bankruptcy court to have these funds put into a trust fund to be administered by Ag Commissioner Doug Goehring. The bond would be used to pay farmers and grain sellers who were not paid for grain sold to Hansen-Mueller. It is estimated there are 40 unsecured Hansen-Mueller creditors in North Dakota.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.12 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 5.2 million bushels (mb) of corn to South Korea.

In the weekly export inspections report, weekly export inspections for the week ending Dec. 26 has corn at 51.2 mb. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1007 mb, up 66% from the previous year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Dec. 26 averaged 1.120 million barrels. This is a new high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.111 million barrels per day in 2024. This was up 2.3% from last week and up 0.8% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 0.999 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.840 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.944 million barrels. This was the highest since Sept. 19 and was up 1.8% from last week and down 2.9% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 23.168 million barrels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Record demand and strong ethanol grind has supported corn values, however ending stocks remain large.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.25 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 3.7 mb of soybeans to Egypt, 5.0 mb of soybeans sold to China and 8.5 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, soybean inspections totaled 27.6 mb for the week ending Dec. 25, 2025. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 566 mb, down 46% from the previous year. USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.635 bb in 2025-26, down 13% from the previous year.

In the monthly Census crush report, USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in November was 220.5 million bushels and down from October’s downwardly revised 236.3 million (originally reported at 237.1 mb), while reflecting a rather modest 5.0% increase from last year. November crush of 210.0 mb after October crush was up 9.5% vs. last year and September crush was up 9.9% vs. last year. Based on the report, September through November first quarter 2025-26 U.S. soybean crush was 661.8 million bushels vs last year’s 612.3 million, leaving December throgh August crush needing to total 1.893 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 2.555 billion bushel annual crush estimate, which would be up just 3.3% from last year’s December throgh August crush of 1.833 billion bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers were advised to sell inventory and re-own with lower risk options due to the huge South American crop that is being produced.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.13 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.19 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, wheat inspections totaled 11.1 mb for the week ending Dec. 25, 2025. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 554 mb, up 22% from the previous year. USDA is estimating wheat exports to total 900 mb in 2025-26, up 9% from the previous year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry. Meeting the carry seems unlikely with the large supplies of world wheat.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $6.42 higher while feeder cattle closed $12.50 higher.

Last week, light to moderate fed cattle cash trade occurred in the North at $232 live and $360 dressed. This is $2 to $3 higher when compared with the prior week’s cash market on a live basis, and $4 firmer dressed. Light trade developed in Kansas at $32, $3 higher than the prior week.

Last week, the boxed beef export sales did increase from the prior week but not from the prior year. At 755 loads, sales were 19% larger than the prior week but 5% below the same week last year. Since the first of the year, sales have been 4,116 loads below last year for a year-to-day total of 39,109 loads, which is 10% below last year.

No sales this week. At the last Oklahoma City auction, feeder steers traded $4 to $8 higher and feeder heifers were steady — $3 higher. Steer and heifer calves were $5 to $20 lower. Demand was moderate with 8,500 head traded vs. 7,419 head last week and 7,342 head last year. This is the last OKC sale until the New Year.

At the last Joplin, Missouri, sale on Monday, Dec. 29; feeder steers under 450 pounds sold $45 to $65 higher; over 450 pounds $3-$20 higher; feeder heifers under 475 pounds sold $25 to $50 higher and heavier weights sold steady to $8 higher. Total receipts were 12,362 head vs. 11,705 head two weeks ago and 12,516 head last year.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were up 31 pounds from a year ago, moving to 981 pounds. This is seven pounds lower than the previous week.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however a re-opening of the U.S.-Mexican border poses headline risks.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $.52 lower.

The monthly hog and pigs report was slightly bearish to the market with all hogs and pigs coming in above estimates of 99.1% at 100.5%. Kept for breeding was neutral at 99.1%, right in line with estimates and kept for marketing came in at 100.8%, above estimates of 99.2%.

In the monthly cold storage report, total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1 percent from the previous month but down 5 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 3 percent from the previous month but down 3 percent from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 1 percent from the previous month and down 5 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 36 percent from last month but down 7 percent from last year.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Dec. 27 has weights up to 294.2 pounds vs. 291.9 pounds last week and 292.3 pounds last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

A large discount to the cash markets should provide limited downside risk.