NEWS

*CHS is reporting first-quarter net income of just over $250 million. That’s up from $245 million one year ago. Record premium diesel fuel sales helped push performance in its refined fuels division. The grains business was hurt by weak soybean crush and spring wheat margins, a downturn in soybean exports and timing impacts. With this report, CHS changed its financial reporting to align itself with its new end-to-end product-line operating model.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.20 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 15.0 million bushels (mb) of corn to Japan; 43.6 mb of corn to an unknown destination and 13.4 mb of corn to South Korea.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Jan. 8, were 58.7 mb, ticking up from the previous two holiday-influenced weeks of 52 and 52.6 million bushels, while being little-changed from last year’s same-week exports of 56.7 mb. Over the last four weeks, corn export inspections averaged 58.0 mb/week vs. last year’s 43.0 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 1.119 billion bushels up nearly 61% from last year’s slow-starting 697 million. However, the year-over-year gain in exports is very likely to begin declining solidly going forward as last year’s corn export pace picked up notably beginning in mid-January and averaged 61.3 million bushels/week over the coming 22-week period, running at an impressive pace through late June. In order to reach the USDA’s 3.200 billion bushel export projection from the December WASDE report, corn inspections would need to average roughly 56 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 58.6 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Jan. 9 averaged 1.196 million barrels. This is a new all-time high daily production. The previous high was 1.131 million barrels per day on Dec. 12, 2025. This was up 8.9% from last week and up 9.2% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.030 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks were 24.473 million barrels. This was the highest since July 25, 2025. This was up 3.5% from last week and down 2.1% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 24.278 million barrels. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 119.11 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 2.040 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 106.49 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.600 billion bushels.

In the monthly WASDE report, the USDA increased corn yields to 186.5 bpa from 186.0 bpa last month. This was a major surprise to the trade that had expected corn yields to fall nearly two bpa. As a result, corn production rose to a new record at 17.021 bb vs. estimates of 16.552 bb and last month’s 16.752 bb. The USDA made minimal changes to the balance sheets with 100 mb added to feed usage and a 10 mb reduction in seed/industrial usage. Thus, U.S. corn ending stocks rose to 2.227 bb, above estimates of 1.972 bb and 2.029 bb last month. Quarterly corn stocks were above estimates of 13.282 bb vs. 12.962 bb estimated and 12.075 bb last year. Quarterly stocks were bearish compared to estimates with corn at 13.282 bb vs. estimates of 12.962 bb and well above last year’s 12.075 bb. Corn production in Brazil was estimated at 131 mmts, unchanged from last month but lower than estimates of 133.0 mmts and below last year’s 136.0 mmts. Argentina’s estimate was 53.0 mmts, below estimates of 53.4 mmts, unchanged from last month, however it was above last year’s 50.0 mmts figure. World corn ending stocks are estimated at 290.9 mmts vs. estimates of 279.9 mmts, well above last month’s 279.2 mmts although less than last year’s 294.7 mmts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Record demand and strong ethanol grind has supported corn values, however ending stocks remain large and the carry will unlikely be met.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.16 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 26.4 mb of soybeans sold to China; 19.9 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination and 5.6 mb of soybeans to Mexico.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 56.2 mb, up from the previous week’s 36.2 mb and slightly better than last year’s same-week exports of 49.9 mb, while being the second highest of the first 19 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year. Over the last four weeks, soybean inspections averaged 38.7 mb/week vs. last year’s 55.8 mb/week average during the period with cumulative export inspections of 659 mb still down 43% from last year’s 1.151 billion. Export inspections needing to average a rather solid 27.9 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 20.5 mb/week average from this point forward to reach the USDA’s December WASDE export projection of 1.635 billion bushels.

In the monthly WASDE report, the USDA left soybean yields unchanged at 53.0 bpa. This was a major surprise to the trade that had expected soybean yields to drop by .3 bpa. As a result, U.S. soybean production rose to 4.262 bb vs. 4.229 bb estimated and 4.253 bb last month. U.S. ending stocks rose to 350 mb, well above estimates of 290 mb and last month’s 300 mb. Quarterly soybean stocks rose to 3.290 bb vs. 3.250 bb estimated and 3.100 bb last year. Soybean production in Brazil is estimated at 178.0 mmts vs. 176.8 mmts estimated, 175.0 mmts last month and 171.5 mmts last year. Soybean production in Argentina was forecast at 48.5 mmts vs. estimates of 48.6 mmts, 48.5 mmts last month and 51.1 mmts last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers were advised to sell inventory and re-own with lower risk options due to the huge South American crop that is being produced.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed unchanged and Kansas City wheat closed $.03 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 11.7 mb rebounded from the previous week’s 6.7 mb but were nearly identical to last year’s same-week exports of 11.4 mb, while wheat shipments over the last four weeks averaged 13.4 mb/week vs. last year’s 13.7 mb/week average during the same period. Cumulative wheat inspections of 573 mb are still up 19% from last year’s 480 million, but slipping, with inspections needing to average roughly 15.1 mb/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s December WASDE export projection of 900 million bushels vs. last year’s 15.6 mb/week average from this point forward.

Wheat balance sheets saw seed usage fall by 1 mb, feed usage by 20 mb, leaving ending stocks to rise to 926 mb vs. 895 mb estimated and 901 mb last month. Winter wheat seedings were 32.990 million, slightly above pre-report estimates of 32.413 million but less than last year’s 33.153 million acres. HRW acres are 23.5 million vs. 23.028 estimated and 23.489 million last year. Quarterly wheat stocks are forecast at 1.675 bb vs. 1.636 bb estimated and 1.573 bb last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry. Meeting the carry seems unlikely with the large supplies of world wheat.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.82 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.60 higher.

Last week, fed cattle cash trade saw moderate volumes in both the North and the South. The North traded at $232 to $234 live and $365 dressed, which is steady to $1 higher live and steady dressed. The South had prices of $233 live, which is steady with last week.

Last week, boxed beef saw sales increase 321 loads from the prior week. At 656 loads, the sales were 280 loads above the same week last year for a 154% increase. The year to date total was 1,269 loads which is 274 loads above last year for a 128% increase.

At the Oklahoma City auction on Jan. 12, feeder steers were steady to $2 lower with feeder heifers steady to $4 higher. Steer calves were $8 to $12 higher with 11,500 head traded vs. 9,266 head last week and 7,909 head last year.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on Jan. 12, light 4 weight steers sold $20 higher while heavier weights sold from $10 lower to $5 higher. Feeder heifers sold from $7 lower to $8 higher. Demand was strong at 14,000 head vs. 14,176 head last week and 10,026 head a year ago.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 7 pounds at 989 pounds which is 30 pounds above year-ago levels. Net beef sales were 11,200 mts for 2026 with shipments of 11,700 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however a re-opening of the US-Mexican border poses headline risks.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.85 higher. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for week ending January 10 has weights at 296.7 pounds vs. 295.5 pounds last week and 292.2 pounds last year.

Net pork sales were 26,800 ms for 2026 with shipments of 40,700 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

A large discount to the cash markets should provide limited downside risk.