NEWS

*Tyson Foods is paying $48 million to settle a class-action lawsuit. The allegations were that Tyson and other pork processors conspired to fix prices from 2009 to 2018. Earlier this month, Tyson paid $55 million to settle a similar lawsuit in its beef business segment.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.01 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 5.14 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Jan. 29 were 44.7 million bushels but down from the previous week’s 60.9 mb, below last year’s same-week exports of 49.6 mb and the lowest of the first 22 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year. Over the last four weeks, corn inspections averaged 55.8 mb/week vs. last year’s 54.1 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative corn inspections of 1.284 billion bushels still up 50% from last year’s 857 million, but slipping as cumulative exports were up more than 70% year-over-year in early December.

In order to reach the USDA’s 3.200 billion bushel export projection, corn inspections will need to average roughly 57.0 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 59.2 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Jan. 30 averaged 0.956 million barrels. This was down 14.2% from last week and down 14.0% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.015 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks were 25.136 million barrels. This was down 1.0% from last week and down 4.8% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 24.945 million barrels. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 95.21 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 2.358 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 106.55 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.600 billion bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Record demand and strong ethanol grind has supported corn values, however ending stocks remain large and the carry will unlikely be met.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.48 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 48.2 mb were little-changed from the previous week’s 49.1 mb while being modestly above last year’s same-week shipments of 41.9 mb. As exports to China continue to play catch-up, soybean inspections over the last four weeks averaged 51.3 mb/week, solidly above last year’s 38.8 mb/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative inspections of 808 million bushels to continue trimming the year-over-year deficit to last year’s 1.256 billion bushels, now down 36% after being down 46% in late December. Soybean inspections would need to average roughly 23.9 mb/week through the end of August, above last year’s 19.1 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the December census crush report, USDA reported U.S. soybean crush was 229.9 million bushels, rising from November crush of 220.5 million bushels, while being 5.6% above last year’s December crush of 217.7 million bushels. Through the first four months of the 2025-26 U.S. soybean marketing year, cumulative crush of 892 million bushels is up 7.4% from last year’s 830 million, leaving January through August crush needing to total 1.678 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s current marketing year total crush estimate of 2.570 billion bushels, which would be up 3.9% from last year for the eight-month period.

U.S. soybean oil production in December was 2.657 billion pounds, up from 2.532 billion in November and last year’s December production of 2.573 billion pounds, bringing 2025-26 U.S. soybean oil marketing year-to-date (October through December) production to 7.931 billion pounds, up 4.3% from last year’s 7.606 billion vs. the USDA’s current marketing year total soybean oil production estimate of 29.940 billion pounds, reflecting an expected 2.5% increase from last year’s 29.218 billion.

USDA reported 488.3 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in December vs. 464.4 million in November and 479.5 million bushels in December last year, but is likely to be revised modestly lower once again as USDA’s initial reads of monthly corn used for ethanol production of late have consistently faced downward revisions in subsequent updates.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers were advised to sell inventory and re-own with lower risk options due to the huge South American crop that is being produced.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.07 3/4 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.09 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 12.0 mb, little-changed from the previous week’s 13.9 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 9.3 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat inspections averaged 13.1 mb/week vs. last year’s 12.0 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 613 million bushels maintaining a 19% gain vs. last year’s 517 million. In order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 15.1 mb/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 16.2 mb/week average during the same period.

In the monthly winter wheat conditions report, the state of Kansas was up 1% to 61% good to excellent, Oklahoma was down 8% to 23%, Texas was down 7% to 13%, Colorado was up 14% to 57%, North Dakota was up 7% to 59%, South Dakota was down 1% to 36%, and Illinois was up 3% to 67%.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should have rolled hedges on stored wheat to March or May to capture the large carry. Meeting the carry seems unlikely with the large supplies of world wheat.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.90 lower while feeder cattle closed $8 higher.

Last week, the North had moderate fed cattle cash trade at $240 to $244 live and $378 dressed, which is steady to $4 higher live and steady dressed when compared to the prior week. There was moderate to active fed cattle cash trade volume in the South at $242 to $245 live, which is $2 to $5 higher than the prior week.

Boxed beef sold for export last week saw the total load count decline 446 loads to 928 loads, which was still a good-sized load count when compared to the other weeks of 2025. Year-to-date load count was 4,390 loads, an increase of 242 loads which is a 5.8% increase.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on Feb. 2, feeder steers were $5 to $20 higher with feeder heifers $5 to $7 higher and steer and heifer calves mostly steady. Demand was decent with 5,456 head traded vs. 9,695 head last week and 11,934 head last year.

At the Oklahoma City auction on Feb. 2, feeder cattle and calves were steady to $4 lower. Demand was decent at 9,800 head vs. 11,549 head last week and 7,205 head a year ago.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 3 pounds at 987 pounds, which is 39 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales were 19,700 mts with shipments at 13,000 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however a re-opening of the U.S.-Mexican border poses headline risks.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.72 higher.

Total pork export shipments during November were reported at 613 million pounds on a carcass weight equivalent, down slightly from the 632 million pounds the prior month, and down 5% from this same month last year. Cumulative year-to-date pork exports through November are now down 2% vs. the prior year.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Jan. 31 has weights down to 291.6 pounds vs. 293.1 pounds last week and 290.7 pounds last year.

Net pork sales were 35,100 mts with shipments at 37,600 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

A large discount to the cash markets should provide limited downside risk.