NEWS

*A Texas grand jury has indicted five employees and executives of Agridime LLC for wire fraud and money laundering. This group promised clients returns of 15 to 32 percent if they invested in their cattle purchase scheme. A total of $220 million was invested in this case of fraud from 2021 to 2023. Taylor Bang of Killdeer, North Dakota, was a cattle broker for Agridime and is one of the defendants in this case.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.01 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Feb. 12, were 58.8 million bushels (mb) but down modestly from the previous week’s 63.4 mb and last year’s same-week exports of 63.9 mb, while corn inspections over the last four weeks averaged 57 mb/week vs. last year’s 54.1 mb/week average during the same period, generally keeping up with the estimated 60.1 mb/week average which will be necessary through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 3.300 billion bushel export projection and would be even slightly above last year’s record 59.2 mb/week average from this point forward. Cumulative corn export inspections of 1.407 billion bushels are still up 44% from last year’s 974 million but slipping fast, and cumulative exports were up 66% year-over-year as recently as early January, while the USDA’s export projection reflects expectations for marketing year total exports to prove 16% above year-ago levels.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending Feb. 13 averaged 1.118 million barrels. This is a new high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.084 million barrels per day in 2025. This was up 0.7% from last week and up 3.1% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.026 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.826 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 25.588 million barrels. This was up 1.4% from last week and down 2.4% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 25.422 million barrels. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 111.35 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 2.580 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 106.25 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.600 billion bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Record demand and strong ethanol grind has supported corn values, however ending stocks remain large and the carry will unlikely be met.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.04 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 44.2 mb, ticking up from the previous week’s 42.1 mb, and were well above last year’s same-week exports of 26.7 mb as will likely continue to be the case in the weeks ahead as last year’s export program was seasonally slowing while this year’s exports are very likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead as last week’s export sales data showed China still had 5.1 MMT of unshipped old crop purchases on the books vs. last year’s 2.0 MMT yet unshipped at the same time. Over the last four weeks, soybean inspections averaged 45.9 mb/week vs. last year’s 34.0 mb/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative inspections of 895 million bushels to continue trimming the deficit to last year’s 1.324 billion to 32% average after being down 45% year-over-year in early January. In order to reach the USDA’s 1.575 billion bushel export projection, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 22.6 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 18.0 mb/week average from this point forward and representing what would be the highest average weekly exports from mid-February through the end of August in seven years just to meet the USDA’s current export projection.

The January NOPA crush report came in at 221.565 mb, above estimates of 218.5 mb, a new record for January, although it was below December’s 225.0 mb. This was well above last year’s 200.4 mb. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.900 bp vs. estimates of 1.710 bb and last month’s 1.642 bp. The was considerably larger than last year’s 1.274 bp of stock inventoried.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers were advised to sell inventory and reown with lower risk options due to the huge South American crop that is being produced.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.33 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.30 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 13.8 mb were down solidly from the previous week’s 21.3 mb, while wheat shipments over the last four weeks averaged 15.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 14.3 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 651 million bushels continuing to maintain a 19% gain to last year’s 547 million vs. the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 9% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 14.7 mb/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 16.3 mb/week average from this point forward, while the USDA’s export projection is likely to prove at least 25 million bushels too low based on the shipment pace so far and last week’s export sales data showing the 5.21 MMT in outstanding sales still on the books remaining above last year’s 4.97 MMT at the same time, implying a likely slightly higher overall shipment pace through the last three months of 2025-26 than last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should use this rally as a hedging opportunity against new crop wheat as the world remains awash in wheat supplies.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $1.32 lower while feeder cattle closed $1.65 lower.

In the monthly Cattle on Feed report, on feed supplies fell to 98.2% of last year, below estimates and a nine-year low. On feed supplies are currently 11.505 million head. Placements came in at 95.3% of a year ago, also below estimates of 96.5% and the lowest in 19 years. Only 1.736 million head were placed in feedlots a month ago. The marketing effort was disappointing at only 87%, which is the lowest in 10 years.

Last week, fed cattle cash trade had moderate volume in the North and light volume in the South. The North traded fed cattle at $247 to $249 live and $388 dressed, which is $1 to $3 higher live and $6 higher dressed compared to the prior week’s trade. The South traded fed cattle at $249 live, which is steady with the top end of the prior week’s prices.

Last week, boxed beef sold for export declined 36 loads from the prior week to 892 loads which was 89 loads above the same week in 2025 for an 11% increase in export sales.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on Feb. 16; feeder steers were $5 to $20 higher with heavier weights $5 to $10 higher. Feeder heifers sold $15 lower to $20 higher. Demand was strong with 12,062 head traded vs. 13,084 head last week and 2,970 head last year.

At the Oklahoma City auction on Feb. 16, steady to higher results were seen once again in OKC, with feeders steady to $10 higher and calves steady to $5 higher. Buyers were reportedly a little more selective, but prices were still firm. Receipts totaled 6,700 head, down from 9,253 last week, but up from 3,169 a year ago.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were steady with the previous week at 981 pounds, which is 30 pounds above year-ago levels. Net beef sales were 14,700 mts for 2026 with shipments of 13,400 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however a reopening of the US-Mexican border poses headline risks.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.30 higher.

Total pork export shipments during November were reported at 613 million pounds on a carcass weight equivalent, down slightly from the 632 million pounds the prior month, and down 5% from this same month last year. Cumulative YTD pork exports through November are now down 2% vs the prior year.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Feb. 14 are 292 pounds vs. 291.5 pounds last week and 289.6 pounds last year. Net pork sales were 27,300 mts for 2026 with shipments of 35,700 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Summer futures above $110 are holding a large premium, which is unlikely to be met.