NEWS

*The price discovery period for crop insurance has ended. The base average price for corn is $4.62 per bushel, down from $4.70 last year. Soybeans are at $11.09 per bushel, up from $10.54 per bushel in 2025. Spring wheat is at $6.19 per bushel, down from $6.55 per bushel a year ago. The base price is lower than last year for barley, durum and oats and slightly higher for canola and sunflowers. March 15 is the crop insurance deadline.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.15 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 12.6 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Feb. 26, were 73.2 million bushels, while slipping modestly from the previous week’s very strong 79.5 mb but reflecting a continued very solid pace of corn exports which have averaged 68.8 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 54.2 mb/week average during the same period. As such, cumulative export inspections of 1.560 billion bushels are maintaining the 45% gain to last year’s 1.074 billion bushels, leaving inspections needing to average roughly 59.5 mb/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 3.300 billion bushel export projection vs. last year’s 60.0 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol daily production for the week ending Feb. 27 averaged 1.095 million barrels. This is a new high daily production for this week of the year. The previous high was 1.093 million barrels per day in 2025. This was down 1.6% from last week and up 0.2% from last year. The five-year average for this week is 1.007 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.665 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 26.337 million barrels. This was the highest since April 11, 2025.This was up 2.7% from last week and down 3.5% from last year. The five-year average stocks for this week is 25.271 million barrels. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 109.05 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 2.800 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 105.96 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.600 billion bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

New crop corn has rallied to attract planted acres this spring with higher input costs. Passing off risk during this rally is sound risk management decisions.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.32 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 41.8 mb, are up strongly from the previous week’s 25.0 mb and continue to run at a rather solid pace for this point of the marketing year as the delayed Chinese export program continues. Soybean inspections over the last four weeks averaged 38.4 mb/week vs. last year’s 31.3 mb/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative export inspections of 962 mb to trim the deficit to last year’s 1.382 billion to 30% average being down 45% year-over-year in early January.

In order to reach the USDA’s 1.575 billion bushel export projection, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 21.6 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 17.2 mb/week average from this point forward.

The monthly Census crush report showed U.S. soybean crush in January was 227.9 million bushels, slightly above wire service-reported average market expectations of 226.3 million vs. 229.9 million in December, while reflecting January crush 7.2% above last year’s 212.6 million bushels after December crush was up 5.6% from last year and November was up 5% year over year. With official data now through the first five months of 2025-26, marketing year-to-date crush of 1.120 billion bushels is up 7.4% from last year’s 1.043 billion, leaving February through August crush needing to total 1.451 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s current annual crush estimate of 2.570 billion bushels. USDA reported U.S. soybean oil production in January was 2.626 billion pounds vs. 2.657 billion in December and 2.527 billion pounds in January last year, while the U.S. average soybean oil yield in January ticked down to 11.52 pounds/bushel from 11.56 in December and continues to run well below year-ago yields, which saw the January yield at 11.89 pounds/bushel. USDA reported 461 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in January 2026, down solidly from 482.6 million in December, which reflected a solid downward revision from USDA’s initially-reported 488.3 million, and compared to 467.9 million bushels in January 2025.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The new crop soybeans are rallying in an attempt to compete for acres due to the massive buying promised by the Chinese trade agreement. Producers should look to pass off some risk on this rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.26 3/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.41 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week were 12.7 mb, but were down from the previous week’s 20.7 mb and were a four-week low. Wheat shipments over the last four weeks averaged 17.1 mb/week vs. last year’s 14.7 mb/week average during the same period, allowing cumulative export inspections of 684 million bushels to maintain a 19% gain to last year’s 576 million vs. the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection reflecting an expected 9% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 14.0 mb per week through the end of May v. last year’s 17.5 mb/week average from this point forward.

State by state winter wheat ratings showed Kansas ratings at 68% g/e, down from 71% last month vs. 62% a year ago. Missouri is 65% g/e vs. 67% last month and 74% last year. Montana ratings are 18% g/e vs. 20% last month and 67% last year. Nebraska is also 18% g/e vs. 28% last month and 24% a year ago. Oklahoma is 21% g/e vs. 26% last month and 37% a year ago. Texas is rated 17% g/e vs. 14% last month and 38% last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should use this rally as a hedging opportunity against new crop wheat as the world remains awash in wheat supplies.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $2.10 higher while feeder cattle closed $.97 higher.

Last week, there was moderate fed cattle cash trade in the North at $240 live and $380 dressed, which is steady to $5 lower live and $3 lower on a dressed basis. The South has had light volume at mainly $240 live, coming in $4 below the prior week’s prices.

Last week, the weekly totals of boxed beef sold for export deteriorated significantly for the fourth consecutive week. At 640 loads last week, the year-on-year decline was 408 loads and the week-to-week decline was 152 loads. As a result, the year-to-date sales slipped below last year after a strong start. At 6,714 loads sold through last week, sales were 313 loads below last year for a 4.5% decline.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on March 2, feeder steers were $10 to $30 lower with heavier weights $2 to $8 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to $10 lower. Demand was strong with 9,980 head traded vs. 10,295 head last week and 13,100 head last year.

At the Oklahoma City auction on March 2, feeder steers were $2 to $8 lower with feeder heifer $4 to $10 lower and calves $10 to $20 lower. Receipts totaled 5,500 head, down from 5,877 last week and 10,907 head a year ago.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were lower than last week by 1 pound at 983 pounds, which is 37 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales were 11,200 mts for 2026 with shipments of 14,900 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The COF report and tight supplies remain bullish to the market, however a reopening of the U.S.-Mexican border poses headline risks.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.07 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Feb. 28 has weights down to 290.9 pounds vs. 291.4 pounds last week and 289.1 pounds last year.

Net pork sales were 36,100 mts for 2026 with shipments of 37,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Summer futures above $110 are holding a large premium, which is unlikely to be met.