Although the soybean and corn markets are enjoying better prices at the moment due to several factors, planting intentions could cause a swing in the other direction.

Chad Hart, agriculture economist at Iowa State University Extension, said March 13 that for the past five months, corn and soybeans have been steadily moving higher, driven by exports and China fulfilling its obligation to buy more soybeans.

“Corn continues to set record levels in terms of export sales. Beans are not at record levels yet, but we are seeing China purchase more soybeans than they have. With the start of the war with Iran, we saw that add a little more oomf to crop prices, too,” Hart said. “Put that all together and we’re finally looking at price levels for soybeans that are up in the 11s now. There’s an old joke that you hate to see soybeans in the 11s, so hopefully we’re on our way up through the 11s to the 12s.”

Another factor that could affect the markets is fertilizer prices. They’ve been on the rise, which could push more producers toward planting additional soybean acres versus corn, which currently holds the front spot for planting intentions.

“It’s called a late shift of land,” Hart said, “when we see a swing toward soybeans to try and avoid higher fertilizer costs.”

This year likely will bring another big harvest, economists foresee, but there’s still a fair amount of crop sitting in the bin.

“Right now, this price rally is rewarding producers for keeping crops in the bin. The question is, ‘How long will it last.’ Hopefully we will see more of a seasonal pricing pattern and look for that high to establish itself between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day. The prospective plantings report at the end of the month will reveal what producers plan to plant this spring,” Hart said.

Chris Pudenz, economics and research manager for the Iowa Farm Bureau, said that row crop farmers both in Iowa and across the country are seeing the cost of production higher than what the return is being returned by the market.

“I’m hearing very anecdotal talk from a couple of folks that lead me to believe we could see similar corn acreage planted in Iowa as last year. Corn has been a clear favorite — until what happened in Iran and with fertilizer prices — to be a more profitable crop than soybeans for 2026, but soybeans have made quite a run these past couple of days,” Pudenz said March 13. “Oil prices have really taken off, which has impacted soybean oil prices and the energy market broadly.”

“However, fertilizer prices — especially urea — might cause some folks who have prebooked their fertilizer to switch and consider planting more soybeans instead of corn and the corn market is factoring that into prices.”

Pudenz said he recently spoke with one farmer who had prepaid 60% of his fertilizer while a colleague spoke with another farmer who had prepaid 50% of his fertilizer. Recently, Pudenz was in a meeting in Boone County with farmers and when asked if they’d prepaid for fertilizer already, only one farmer hadn’t done that.

“A study from the University of Illinois two years ago showed that 82% of corn farmers said they had prepaid fertilizer as a risk management tool. But the Farm Bureau president in South Carolina recently reported that folks in his area do very little to no prepaying for fertilizer,” Pudenz said. “I also think the international conflict is providing Iowa farmers with the opportunity to premarket some of their fall crop at more favorable prices than folks were expecting this time of year, and this opportunity was certainly unexpected.”