The Mideast is a tough community. Most of the enmity is between the Jews and Muslims, but not all.

There are two kinds of Muslims, the Sunnis and Shiites. They hate each other too. They are represented by Saudis and Iranians. This ingrained culture of hate goes back before Jesus Christ. They practice an eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth way of balancing differences, and they keep it up generationally never letting it cool. Christians who promoted turning the other cheek were the radical left-wing liberals to the concept with Crusaders, very un-Christian-like, joining in the intolerance.

For centuries nothing has changed except who kills who. Israel has nuclear weapons to protect their right to life and if Iran got them, it would be just a matter of time until someone would go insane and use them. ISIS lives to kill infidels.

What we are trying to accomplish here is to keep them from killing each other and contaminating the oil through nuclear fallout that we need to fuel the world economy. We are willing to make them rich in the process and some of them, such as the Saudis and Gulf states have gotten with the program. They see another way and are willing to let bygones go. So, they come under attack from the fanatics too. Complicating the hate, they had to make room in the region for the Israelis, and the Palestinians couldn’t stand how that was fought out. They recently attacked Israel, which started a war in Gaza that the Israelis are trying to finish. Terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah exist only to feed the hate and continue the killing.

President Donald Trump wants to turn Gaza into a seaside paradise, but they have a lot of work to do developing that yet. I am told that the majority of Iranians would like to adopt the Saudi point of view but they are under the cusp of Islamic radical religious leaders who are willing to kill enough of their own people to crush their freedom to choose.

So here we are with no real direct need for Mideast oil ourselves but up to our ears joining in the regional war trying to deconflict the region and let sane leaders lead. Our military did what we asked it too, but the political objectives have not unfolded as are necessary to end this. It is just another war in Mideast history settling little.

So, is this war over? Soon? Impossible to know but likely … not by a … site. Trump has said he wants to finish it so we do not have to come back in five or 10 years. That is a great goal but will be hard to score. In terms of the game as Trump calls it … we have taken out their air force and air defense systems gaining air dominance over the country. We have all but destroyed their command and control, degraded their munitions manufacturing capacity and destroyed regime structures. We have sunk the major ships in their navy (some subs survive).

Russia sunk all of Ukraine’s major warships yet the Ukraine navy with missiles, drones and small boats have taken out the Russian Black Sea fleet, chasing it back to Russian ports for safety.

Iran has missiles, drones and small boats too. Want to see them? Just run a tanker with a U.S. flag through the Strait of Hormuz and see what happens next. We have degraded their missile launch and drone systems but they have some left and can make more. Their ability to intervene in the Persian Gulf and block the transit of materials the world economy needs through a key choke point (the Hormuz Strait) … oil, gas, materials for aluminum and fertilizer enough that if not restored in a reasonable amount of time, it will disrupt the global economy. The new Supreme Leader would like to keep the conflict going beyond the fall mid-term election.

We are not going to be able to stop here and let this go. We have to open the Strait of Hormuz for commercial commerce to occur without threat of drones and small boat attacks damaging and sinking tankers. Allies, other than Israel, are not going to help us. Imagine what a burning tanker in the navigational channel of the strait would look like to Wall Street. This mission can be accomplished but it will take time to get the resources there, patrol ships, ground troops and or drone defenses, and the risk from further engagement increases the chance of casualties.

Trump has more decisions to make. Taking out drug boats in the Caribbean turned out to be practice. Iran may be playing this game by allowing its oil to transit the Strait but block all other shipping. I have mentioned Kharg Island, which is their loading terminal. If we shut off their ability to export oil then they will be motivated to mine the Strait and Gulf so no one can use it. That would shut it off causing grave consequences, forcing the global economy into getting along without. That is expensive, inflationary and may not be fully possible.

The girls school destroyed? Why do we care? … Humanity. Why do they care? Their culture requires retribution. My wife and I attended the Hawaii Symphony Choir on vacation this week. Who you sit next to is random. An elderly woman next to us told us her story. She was Iranian. They left Iran and moved to Damascus first before emigrating to the U.S. many decades ago. She had four daughters, three of which were doctors and the one living in Hawaii was a Harvard educated professor, astrophysicist. (There is an immigration lesson here too.) Her daughters have had a very different productive life here as women than they would have had in Iran where opportunities for women are limited. She said that Iran was a beautiful country and blamed everything on the Ayatollah. She said that had the regime accommodated Israel and the U.S. that the country could have been wonderful.

One of the primary war objectives is to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. For the most part. that has been accomplished. They supposedly have some enriched uranium that we would like to take possession of but that means use of boots on the ground which has been a red line. Trump boasts that he would use ground troops, but he is negotiating as it is the last thing he wants to do. The excursion that Trump says that we are on is not over yet. Markets ran to highs on fear and have fallen given only tidbits of optimism, but a return to normal is not yet in sight. What would normal be?