NEWS

*The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York entered a consent order against Peken Global Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of the Turks and Caicos Islands, that operates the KuCoin exchange, for allowing U.S. participants to trade directly on its electronic trading and order-matching system without registering with the CFTC as a foreign board of trade. The order permanently enjoins Peken Global from future violations, as charged, and requires Peken Global to pay a $500,000 civil monetary penalty.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.09 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sales of 5.7 million bushels of corn to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended March 26, were 70.5 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 67 million bushels and were a four-week high. Over the last four weeks, corn inspections averaged 65.8 million bushels/week, in line with last year’s 67 million bushels/week average during the same period, with cumulative corn export inspections of 1.826 billion bushels still up 36% from last year’s 1.341 billion, but the year-over-year gain continues to slip as last year’s corn export pace ran very strong for most of the remainder of the 2024-25 marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 3.3 billion bushel export projection, export inspections will need to average roughly 58.7 million bushels/week through the end of August, essentially identical to last year’s 58.8 million bushel per week average from this point forward.

The USDA reported March 1 U.S. corn stocks at 9.024 billion bushels, moderately below the average trade estimate of 9.104 billion, while slightly revising Dec. 1, 2025, U.S. corn stocks to 13.306 billion bushels from 13.282 billion initially reported. March 1 U.S. corn stocks of 9.024 billion bushels are still an all-time record high in surpassing 2017-18’s 8.892 billion, and coming in 80 million bushels below the average trade estimate, and now six of the last seven years saw March 1 corn stocks come in below the average trade estimate. USDA estimated 2026-27 U.S. corn planted acreage at 95.338 million acres, nearly 1 million acres above the average trade estimate of 94.371 million and 1.3 million acres higher than USDA penciled at the February Ag Outlook Forum at 94 million acres and is down 3.45 million acres from last year.

In the weekly EIA report, in the week ending March 27, ethanol production dropped to 1,075K barrels per day last week, down from 1,116K bpd the previous week, but up from 1,063K bpd in the same week last year. U.S. ethanol stocks fell to 26 million barrels in the week ending March 27, down from 27.2 million barrels the previous week, and down from 26.6 million barrels in the same week last year. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 101.8 million bushels of corn, down from 105.7 million bushels the previous week, and down slightly from 102 million bushels in the same week last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

New crop corn has rallied to attract planted acres this spring with higher input costs. Passing off risk during this rally is a sound risk management decision.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.09 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 21.5 million bushels were down from the previous week’s 41 million bushels and were the lowest in 27 weeks as the seasonal slowdown in U.S. soybean exports continues. However, with the delayed export program to China, average soybean exports over the last four week of 32.8 million bushels/week were slightly above last year’s 29.2 million bushels/week average during the same period. Cumulative soybean export inspections of 1.094 billion bushels are maintaining a 27% deficit to last year’s 1.498 billion vs. the USDA’s 1.575 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 16% decline in exports from 2024-25. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, soybean inspections will need to average roughly 19.5 million bushels/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 15 million bushel/week average from this point forward. At this point of the marketing year, our “needed” inspections shipment pace assumes marketing year total official exports will prove around 40 million bushels larger than inspections data, similar to the 47 million bushel difference between the two tallies in 2024-25.

The USDA estimated March 1 U.S. soybean stocks at 2.105 billion bushels, 38 million bushels above the average trade estimate of 2.067 billion, which was the largest “bearish surprise” for March 1 soybean stocks in eight years, while being up 10.2% (194 million bushels) from last year’s 1.911 billion and the highest in six years. The USDA estimated 2026-27 U.S. soybean planted area at 84.700 million acres, 849,000 acres below the average trade estimate of 85.549 million, while reflecting an estimated 3.485 million acre increase from last year’s 81.215 million. This marked the 7th of the last nine prospective plantings reports to estimate new crop soybean planted area below market expectations.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The new crop soybeans are rallying in an attempt to compete for acres due to the massive buying promised by the Chinese trade agreement. Producers should look to pass off some risk on this rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.07 1/2 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.19 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 13.4 million bushels slipped from the previous week’s 16.9 million bushels, while wheat inspections over the last four weeks averaged 15.3 million bushels/week vs. last year’s 15.8 million bushels/week average during the same period. Cumulative wheat inspections of 746 million bushels are down 17% from last year’s 639 million vs. the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 9% decline in exports from last year. With nine full weeks remaining in 2025-26, wheat inspection will only need to average roughly 13.9 million bushels/week through the end of May vs. last year’s 18.3 million bushels/week average from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s export target.

The USDA reported Kansas winter wheat ratings at 40% good/excellent this week, down from 46% last week and 49% last year; Texas ratings fell from 16% to 14% g/ex (down from 26% a year ago) with Oklahoma down from 14% to 13% g/ex (versus 33% a year ago).

The USDA reported March 1 U.S. wheat stocks at 1.300 billion bushels, slightly below the average trade estimate of 1.310 billion and the smallest deviation from the average estimate for March 1 stocks in eight years. In the USDA’s first official estimate of 2026-27, U.S. “other spring” wheat planted area at 9.415 million acres was solidly below the average trade estimate of 9.843 million and down 575,000 acres from last year’s 9.990 million, with planted area in North Dakota estimated to be down 400,000 acres from last year. For the third consecutive year, USDA solidly lowered estimated winter wheat planted area in the March report from the initial estimate in the January Winter Wheat Seeding Report, lowering their estimate by 580,000 acres from January to 32.410 million acres, which was also below average market expectations of 32.730 million. All together, USDA estimated 2026-27 all wheat planted area at 43.775 million acres vs. the average trade estimate of 44.786 million, while reflecting a 1.55 million acre decline from last year’s 45.328 million acres. For the first time in history, Kansas is expected to plant more corn acres than wheat acres in 2026.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should use this rally as a hedging opportunity against new crop wheat as the world remains awash in wheat supplies.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $7.37 higher while feeder cattle closed $10.55 higher.

Last week, fed cattle cash trade in the North saw active volume at mainly $245 live with a top end at $246.50 and dressed trade at $385, which is $10 to $11 higher live and $13 to $15 higher dressed compared to the prior week. Moderate volume in the South at $245 to $246 live, $7 to $11 higher than the previous week.

At 517 loads last week, exports declined 240 loads from the prior week for a 32% decline but only a 90-load decline from the same week last year for a 15% year-on-year decline. Since the first of the year, the export sales were 352 loads below last year at 9,449 loads for a year-to-date total decline of 3.6%.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on March 30, feeder steers under 475 pounds were $10 to $35 lower while weights over 475 pounds were $5 to $20 higher. Feeder heifers were $6 lower to $15 higher. Supply was heavy with good demand as 10,608 head traded vs. 8,912 head last week and 10,052 head last year.

At the Oklahoma City auction on March 30, feeder steers and heifers were $4 to $8 higher. Steer and heifer calves were mostly steady. Receipts totaled 7,700 head vs. 5,370 head last week and 4,795 head a year ago.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were lower than last week by 5 pounds at 984 pounds, which is 34 pounds above year-ago levels. Net beef sales were 11,900 mts for 2026 with exports of 13,600 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As values approach the previous highs during the second quarter, laying off some risk seems prudent with supplies likely to increase in the last half of 2026.