NEWS

*The four major beef packers are in the crosshairs of the Trump Administration.

The Justice Department, USDA and the White House were all represented at a news conference focusing on anticompetitive behavior in the meatpacking sector. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill and National Beef control 85 percent of the U.S. beef processing sector. The discussion also highlighted the size of the U.S. cattle herd, which is at its smallest level in 75 years. “The low herd size inherited by the Trump administration can be attributed to a variety of factors,” said Rollins. “The biggest one, at least from our perspective, is the radical left’s ongoing assault against ranching as a way of life. For years, they used climate alarmism to wage a war on cattle in America, and when you pair that with droughts, wildfires, over-regulation from previous administrations, and volatile markets, this is how we have ended up here today.”

Packer concentration in the beef industry started in the 1980s but solidified in the mid-1990s when the four major packers went through a period of expansion and a wave of mergers.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.12 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 15 million bushels (mb) of corn to Mexico and 5.0 mb of corn to South Korea.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended May 7, were 66.6 million bushels, while down from the previous week’s 80.3 mb, the overall corn export pace continues to run stronger than indicated relative to the USDA’s 3.3 billion bushel export projection as corn inspections over the last four weeks averaged 70.2 mb/week vs. last year’s 62.1 mb/week average during the same period and our estimate of inspections needing to average roughly 56.7 mb/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s current export projection, nearly identical to last year’s 56.9 mb/week average from this point forward. Cumulative corn export inspections of 2.251 billion bushels are up nearly 31% from last year’s 1.725 billion with 16 weeks remaining in the 2025-26 marketing year vs. the USDA’s 3.300 billion bushel export estimate, reflecting an expected 16% increase in exports from last year.

Corn planting has reached 57% completion, jumping from 38% last week. This is slightly ahead of the average analyst estimate of 55% and well ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Emergence is at 23%, compared to the average of 19%.

U.S. ethanol production, for the week ended May 8, rose sharply to 1.082 million barrels/day from 1.017 mbpd the previous week, a much larger increase than expected relative to wire service-reported market expectations of 1.025-1.050 mbpd while reflecting the highest production in four weeks after the solid seasonal maintenance-related pullback since mid-April. While ethanol production rose sharply last week, U.S. ethanol stocks declined sharply, falling to 24.870 million barrels from 26.020 million barrels the previous week, a 17-week low and a much larger decline than expected based on the range of market ideas of 25.3-26.2 million barrels, while reflecting stocks 2.3% (24 million gallons) below year-ago same-week stocks of 1.069 billion gallons after stocks ran above year ago level the prior three weeks.

U.S. new crop corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.957 bb while the trade was expecting 1.933 bb. 2026-27 corn production is forecast at 15.995 bb, the second largest on record, was slightly above estimates of 15.934 bb. Corn yields were forecast at 183.0 bpa. Corn production in Brazil was increased to 135.0 mmts vs. 132.0 mts last month with corn in Argentina at 59.0 mts vs. 52.0 mts last month.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

New crop corn has rallied to attract planted acres this spring with higher input costs. Passing off risk during this rally is sound risk management decisions.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.16 1/2 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 9.3 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination and 155,000 mts of meal to Italy.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 24.1 mb and up from the previous week’s 18.6 mb while soybean inspections over the last four weeks averaged 23.5 mb/week vs. last year’s 16.5 mb/week average during the same period, bringing cumulative soybean export inspections to 1.249 billion bushels, down 23% from last year’s 1.615 billion vs. the USDA’s 2025-26 1.540 billion bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 18% decline in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, soybean inspections would need to average roughly 15.8 mb/week through the end of the marketing year vs. last year’s 13.4 mb/week average from this point forward.

Soybeans planting reached 49% complete, nearly hitting the halfway mark. This is significantly ahead of the five-year average of 36%. Emergence is reported at 20%, comfortably above the five-year average of 12%.

U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 310 mb with the trade expecting 364 mb. U.S. soybean production is forecast 4.435 bb vs. estimates of 4.445 bb and 173 mb larger than a year ago. U.S. soybean yields are pegged at 53.0 bpa. Soybean production in Brazil is unchanged at 180.0 mts with Argentina also unchanged at 48.0 mts.

The April NOPA crush report came in at 211.9 million bushels, around 2 million below the average trade estimate and down from 226.2 mb last month, but still above 190.2 mb last April (which was already easily a record for the month). Cumulative Sepember-April crush of 1735 mb is already 195 mb ahead of last year’s pace (plus 13% vs. last year), with the USDA looking for a less than a plus 8% year-over-year total crush rise, even after another plus-20 mb crush increase in the May S&D. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1947 million pounds, just a shade below the average expectation and down from 2039 million pounds last year, but above 1527 mb last April. Implied domestic April oil use of 2569 million pounds, down from March but well above last year.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The new crop soybeans are rallying in an attempt to compete for acres due to the massive buying promised by the Chinese trade agreement. Producers should look to pass off some risk on this rally.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.15 1/2 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.11 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 18.8 mb were nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 18.5 mb while averaging 17.5 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 18.2 mb/week average during the same period. More importantly, wheat shipments continue to run stronger than our estimated “needed” inspections estimate pace of 10.9 mb/week over the final three full weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year to reach the USDA’s current 900 million bushel export projection, which we expect to prove 20-25 million bushels too low. Cumulative wheat export inspections of 841 million bushels are up 12.6% from last year’s 747 million vs. the USDA’s current export projection, reflecting an estimated 9% increase from last year.

Spring wheat: Planting is 53% complete, surpassing both the five-year average (51%) and trade expectations (50%). The biggest surprise in the report was the decline in winter wheat ratings, which fell to a four-year low for this time of year: Only 28% of the crop is rated in “good to excellent” condition, a three-point drop from last week. Analysts had actually predicted a one-point improvement to 32%. In Kansas, the largest producer, good-to-excellent ratings dropped from 22% to 17%.

U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. This would be the lowest production level since 1972, if realized. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast down 1.048 bb (-25%) from 2025. Average yield forecast at 47.6 bpa (-7.3 bpa from 2025). HRW wheat production is forecast at 515 mb (-36% from 2025). U.S. new crop wheat ending stocks were projected at 762 mb, well below trade expectations of 833 mb.

Scouting on Day 3 of the tour resulted in an average yield of 39.7 bushels per acre (bpa), nominally the highest average of the week. Overall, after scouting 394 fields across the state — and some into neighboring Nebraska and Oklahoma — the total weighted average yield for the tour was estimated at 38.9 bpa, a 26.6% decrease from 2025 and the third time in the past five years that the average was below 40 bpa.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Producers should use this rally as a hedging opportunity against new crop wheat as the world remains awash in wheat supplies.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $4.05 higher while feeder cattle closed $2.87 lower.

Last week, cash-fed cattle traded at active volumes in the North at $260 to $265 live and $410 to $415 dressed, which is $4 to $6 higher live and $5 to $10 higher dressed. Moderate to active volume traded in the South at $260 to $265 live to come in $4 to $7 higher than the prior week.

At the Joplin, Missouri auction on May 11, we saw a significant increase in volume with 11,000 head in receipts, compared to 7,321 last week. Feeder steers ranged from $4 higher to $8 lower. Feeder heifers ranged from $10 higher to $15 lower.

At the Oklahoma City auction on May 11, we saw a total of 5,237 head, with the market turning lower as volatility in the futures market dampened buyer aggressive bidding. The overall tone was softer compared to last week, with demand shifting to “moderate” as cattle futures traded into the red during the sale. Feeder steers were $5 to $10 lower and feeder heifers were steady to $5 lower.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 2 pounds at 978 pounds, which is 40 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales of 7,500 MT for 2026 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior four-week average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The upcoming COF report looks to be bearish. The time to hedge 2026 inventory is now while prices are near their contract highs.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $.075 lower. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending May 9 has weights at 290.8 pounds vs. 291.2 pounds last week and 289.6 pounds last year.

Net pork sales of 21,000 MT for 2026 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior four-week average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Commercial buying has turned bullish, suggesting a summer rally is forth coming.