NEWS

U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer says the Trump administration will soon seek public input on which Chinese imports could qualify for lower tariffs under a new U.S.-China trade framework. The agreement creates a Board of Trade to review roughly $30 billion in non-strategic goods for possible tariff reductions. China also committed to purchase up to $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products, potentially helping U.S. ag exports approach record levels if retaliatory tariffs are removed.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.28 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 4.5 million bushels (mb) of corn to Columbia and 5.4 mb of corn to South Korea.

U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended May 28, were 68 million bushels, up modestly from the previous week’s 63.2 mb, while shipments over the last four weeks averaged 63.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 60.2 mb/week average during the same period. Now with 13 weeks remaining in the 2025-26 U.S. corn marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 2.439 billion bushels are up 27% from last year’s 1.915 billion vs. the USDA’s 3.300 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 16% increase in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, corn inspections would need to average roughly 55.4 mb/week through the end of August, exactly the same as last year’s average weekly shipments from this point forward.

The USDA Crop Progress Report shows U.S. corn was 93% planted, in line with last year and the average, while emergence at 76% was slightly ahead of average, and the first condition rating of 67% good/excellent was solid but not exceptional.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production improved to 1.108 million barrels per day, up 1.7% from the prior week, though slightly below expectations of 1.117 mbpd. Midwest production, the key corn-ethanol region, rose to 1.047 mbpd, while blender inputs fell 4.1% to 899,000 bpd, suggesting demand was softer on the week despite stronger plant output. U.S. ethanol stocks fell 1.4% on the week to 24.606 million barrels, well below the Bloomberg survey average of 25.202 million, with the sharpest draw on the East Coast, where stocks dropped 5.3%. Total stocks are still slightly above last year, up .7%, but the draw was larger than expected.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The $4.41 – $4.45 area is key support for the December corn market. Producers should roll put options down or remove them at this level as the market has removed all weather premium from values this summer.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.51 1/4 lower. Last week, private exporters announced sales 190,000 mts of soybean meal to the Philippines.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 18.2 mb, while slipping slightly from the previous week’s 21.6 mb. Soybean inspections over the last four weeks averaged 21.3 mb/week vs. last year’s 10.7 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative export inspections of 1.310 billion bushels down 20% from last year’s 1.641 billion vs. the USDA’s 1.530 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 19% decline in exports from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, soybean inspections would need to average roughly 14 mb/week through the end of August vs. last year’s 14.5 mb/week average from this point forward, taking into accounts expectations for official census exports to prove around 30 mb higher than inspections data for the entirety of the marketing year.

In the weekly crop progress report, soybean planting advanced to 87% done versus the 80% average and emergence at 65% versus the 57% average, while conditions were 66% good/excellent. The report does not point to record potential yet, but it removes early planting-risk premium and shifts the market’s focus squarely to June weather.

In the monthly Census crush report, the USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in April was 218.5 million bushels, above average market expectations of 214.7 million and the range of ideas of 213.0-217.3 million bushels and up 7.9% from last year’s April crush of 202.4 million bushels. USDA reported U.S. soybean oil production in April was 2.533 billion pounds vs. an upwardly-revised March production figure of 2.685 billion pounds (originally reported at 2.637 billion) and 2.403 billion pounds in April last year. USDA reported end April U.S. soybean oil stocks were 2.443 billion pounds, above average market expectations of 2.365 billion.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The new crop soybeans are pulling back into key technical support. Producers should roll put options down or remove them at this level as the market has removed a lot of weather premium from values this summer.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.30 lower and Kansas City wheat closed $.292 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 402,000 tonnes (14.8 mb) were within market expectations of 300,000-500,000 tonnes (11.0-18.4 mb) in the last full weeks of the 2025-26 U.S. wheat marketing year. Wheat inspections over the last four weeks averaged 14.1 mb/week vs. last year’s 17.9 mb/week average during the same period with cumulative export inspections of 878 million bushels, up 9% from last year’s 803 million vs. the USDA’s 910 mb export projection, reflecting an estimated 10% increase from last year. With another week of similar exports next week, we would expect 2025-26 marketing year total exports to fall somewhere around 905-910 million bushels, in line with the USDA’s current estimate.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, winter wheat is 87% headed vs. 82% year ago vs. 79% avg. Only 5% of crop is harvested vs. 3% year ago vs. 3% average pace. Conditions were unchanged at 26% g/ex, 30% fair, 44% p/vp. Spring wheat is 94% planted vs 94% year ago vs. 89% average pace. Seventy-two percent of crop is emerged vs. 71% year ago vs. 67% avg. pace. Crop is rated 47% g/ex, 47% fair, 6% p/vp. Year-ago ratings were 50% g/ex.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

As Kansas City wheat futures near key technical support of $5.99 to $6.05 area, producers should consider removing hedges/put options.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $2.42 higher while feeder cattle closed $4.80 higher.

Active trade in the North and the South last week: Northern cattle traded at $255 to $258 live and $405 to $407 dressed, which is steady money with the prior week. Cattle in the South traded at $256 to $258 live, which is also mostly steady with the prior week’s prices

The Joplin, Missouri auction on June 1 saw a heavy influx of cattle following the Memorial Day holiday period, with total receipts reaching 12,000 head. Feeder steers sold $5 to $15 lower across most weight classes. The distinct exception was heavy 5-weight steers, which bucked the trend and traded $3 higher due to strong localized demand for grass/backgrounding cattle. Feeder heifers faced more significant pressure. Heifers under 650 pounds sold $10 to $30 lower, while the heavier weight categories held up slightly better, closing $2 to $10 lower.

The Oklahoma City auction on June 1 total receipts, estimated at 5,500 head, down from 7,116 head in the last reported test two weeks ago. Feeder steers and heifers traded $5 to $15 lower, with some instances plunging up to $20 lower. Steer and heifer calves closed $10 to $20 lower.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 2 pounds at 978 pounds, which is 34 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales of only 4,900 mts were down 62% from last week and 48% from the four-week average. Exports were 10,200 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The spring highs are likely in for this year; however secondary test of the highs could be seen this summer as the tight supplies should be bullish for the market.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.07 lower.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending May 30 has weights at 290.4 pounds vs. 291.1 pounds last week and 288.3 pounds last year.

Net pork sales of 38,900 mts were up 18% from last week and 31% from the four-week average. Exports were 30,300 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Commercial buying has turned bullish, suggesting a summer rally is forth coming.