NEWS

An agreement has been reached between the Federal Trade Commission, John Deere and farmers from Minnesota and four other states. This agreement makes sure farmers have access to the diagnostic and repair tools necessary to maintain and repair their own John Deere equipment. This deal settles a right-to-repair case filed by the FTC and the states in early 2025.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.09 higher. Last week, private exporters did not report any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended July 9, were 60.6 million bushels (mb), while slipping from the previous week’s 68.3 mb but continuing to run above the USDA’s 2025-26 U.S. corn export projection of 3.325 billion bushels having averaged 64.6 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. our estimated average weekly “needed” pace through the end of August of 54.5 mb/week to reach USDA’s export target. Export inspections last year during the same most-recent four-week period averaged 56.7 mb/week. Cumulative corn export inspections of 2.843 billion bushels are up 25% from last year’s 2.277 billion vs. the USDA’s 3.325 billion bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 16% from last year, now with seven full weeks remaining in the 2025-26 marketing year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, corn conditions increased 1% to 68% good/excellent vs. 67% expected, 67% g/e last week, 74% g/e last year. Thirty-four percent of the crop is silking vs. 16% and 30% last year. 6% is in the dough stage vs. 3% last week and 5% last year.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol average daily production for the week ending July 10 averaged 1.040 million barrels. This was down 4.8% from last week and down 4.3% from last year. Ethanol stocks were 24.391 million barrels. This was a new high stocks level for this week of the year. The previous high was 23.635 million barrels in 2025. This was up 1.9% from last week and up 3.2% from last year. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 103.58 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 4.856 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 96.75 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.575 billion bushels.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The market is quickly adding back in weather premium as conditions have turned hot and dry. A retest of the old highs is possible if conditions persist into August.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.13 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 17.5 mb of soybeans to China; 9.4 mb of soybeans to Mexico and 4.0 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 15.4 mb fell from the previous week’s 19.9 mb while averaging 15.4 mb/week vs. last year’s 9.1 mb/week average during the same period but, more importantly, continuing to run above our estimated average weekly “needed” pace of 13.9 mb/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 1.520 billion bushel export projection which they ticked higher by 10 million bushels in last Friday’s WASDE report. S

oybean inspections over the final seven weeks of the marketing year last averaged 17.6 mb/week. Cumulative soybean inspections of 1.407 billion bushels are down nearly 18% from last year’s 1.707 billion vs. the USDA’s export projection reflecting an expected 20% decline from last year.

In the weekly crop progress report, soybean conditions improved 1% to 65% g/e vs. 64% expected, 64% g/e last week and 70% g/e last year. 50% is blooming vs. 34% last week and 44% on average with 19% setting pods vs. 9% last week and 13% on average.

The June NOPA crush report came in well above expectations at 214.34 mb vs. estimates of 204.0 mb as well as last month’s 208.8 mb and shattered the previous June record set last year of 185.3 mb. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.501 bp, below estimates of 1.653 bp and last month’s 1.735 bp but was higher than last year’s 1.384 bp.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The market is quickly adding back in weather premium as conditions have turned hot and dry. A retest of the old highs is possible if conditions persist into August.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.47 3/4 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.58 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week of 13.7 mb rebounded from the previous week’s weak 5.4 mb. Over the last four weeks, wheat inspections averaged 12.1 mb/week vs. last year’s 15.6 mb/week average during the same period, with cumulative inspections of 70 million bushels down 17% from last year’s 84 million, now through six weeks of the 2026-27 marketing year, vs. the USDA’s 775 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 15% decline from 2025-26. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat inspections will need to average roughly 14.7 mb/week through the end of next May vs. last year’s 17.1 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 58% good/excellent vs. 56% expected, 57% g/e last week and 54% g/e last year. 72% is in the head stage vs. 54% last week and 72% on average. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 67% complete vs. 69% expected, 59% last week, 62% last year and 61% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The forecasted post harvest rally has wheat futures testing previous highs. Producers should begin to shed some market risk into this weekly resistance.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $9.70 lower while feeder cattle closed $8.45 lower.

Last week, moderate fed cattle cash trade volumes in the North at $238 to $240 live and $375 to $380 dressed, which is $8 to $10 softer live and $13 to $18 lower dressed when compared to last week. Light to moderate trade in the South at $237 to $238 live, which is $10 to $11 below last week’s trade.

The Joplin, Missouri auction on July 13 saw 6,009 head traded. This is up slightly from last week’s 5,561 head, but down from the 7,005 head reported during the same week last year. Feeder steers sold $5 to $20 lower while feeder heifers sold $3 to $15 lower.

The Oklahoma City auction on July 13 saw 5,200 head trade hands. This represents a sharp volume rebound from the holiday-impacted low of 952 head the prior week, though it fell below the 6,680 head recorded during the same week last year. Feeder steers were mostly steady, feeder heifers steady to $4 higher, Steer calves steady to $3 lower and heifer calves $2 to $5 higher.

Boxed beef sold for export last week increased 311 loads from the prior week. At 660 loads last week, the sales were 189% larger than the prior week and about 1% smaller than the same week last year.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 2 pounds at 963 pounds, which is 30 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales of 8,000 MT for 2026 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior four-week average with exports of 10,400 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Softening demand has weighed on values and the technical trend turning lower has encouraged long fund liquidation. Last year values fell nearly $30 in the fall and a similar correction is likely to be seen this year.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $2.67 higher.

Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending July 11 has weights at 286.1 pounds vs. 285.2 pounds last week and 282.7 pounds last year.

Net pork sales of 21,600 MT for 2026 were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior four-week average with exports of 25,200 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The forecasted rally off the weekly chart support has begun.