NEWS

The White House is cracking down on companies avoiding U.S. tariffs by routing goods through other countries. A new report says China-linked goods are being rerouted through more than 40 countries, potentially involving between $40 billion and $303 billion in trade each year. The administration plans to use tougher rules and artificial intelligence tools to identify those shipments. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says tariff evasion will also be part of ongoing trade discussions.

CORN

ANALYSIS

Corn closed the week $.24 1/2 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 8.1 million bushels (mb) of corn to an unknown destination.

Pro Farmer estimates the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre, which is down from USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. corn export inspections, for the week ended Aug. 13, were strong at 75.2 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 69.3 mb, while averaging 69.8 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 53.2 mb/week average during the same period. Even with the USDA’s solid increase in their 2025-26 U.S. corn export projection in last week’s WASDE report to 3.400 billion bushels, the recent pace of exports continues to run above the roughly 50 mb/week average that would be needed over the next three weeks (2 1/2 weeks remaining in the 2025-26 marketing year) in order for exports to reach the USDA’s export projection. Cumulative corn export inspections of 3.187 billion bushels are up 26% from last year’s 2.528 billion vs. the USDA estimating exports to be up 18% from last year.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, U.S. corn conditions fell 1% to 60% good/excellent vs. 60% expected, 61% g/e last week and 71% g/e last year. 29% of the crop is dented vs. 24% last year; 76% is in the dough stage vs. 70% last year and 97% is silking vs. 97% a year ago.

In the weekly EIA report, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.089 mb for the week ending Aug. 14; down 2.5% from last week and up 1.6% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks were 25.121 mb, a new high stocks level for this week of the year; eclipsing the previous high of 23.807 mb in 2022. This was up 1.3% from last week and 10.7 % from last year. The amount of corn used during the week was estimated at 108.46 mb; cumulative corn use has reached 5.408 bb. Corn needs to average only 68.74 mb per week to reach the USDA forecast of 5.575 bb.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Longer term fundamentals are bullish, however near-term values should struggle as recent rainfall could improve yield potential. Producers should be doing some light hedging on what product they do not have enough storage space for.

SOYBEANS

ANALYSIS

Soybeans closed the week $.49 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sales of 31.2 mb of soybeans to China and 32.0 mb of soybeans to an unknown destination.

Pro Farmer estimates the 2026 U.S. soybean crop at 4.572 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, which is up from USDA’s August estimate of 52.7 bushels per acre.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. soybean export inspections last week of 9.9 mb were down from the previous week’s 15.0 mb and were the lowest of the 2025-26 marketing year, while averaging 12.8 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 19.3 mb/week average during the same period. Old crop exports face the possibility of falling slightly short of the USDA’s 1.520 billion bushel export projection if the same pace of late is maintained over the next three weeks as soybean inspections would need to average roughly 15.1 mb/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s current estimate. Cumulative export inspections of 1.471 billion bushels are down 18% from last year’s 1.798 billion vs. the USDA estimating exports this year to be down 20% from a year ago.

In the weekly crop progress report, U.S. soybean conditions fell 1% nationwide to 61% g/e vs. 61% expected, 62% g/e last week and 68% g/e last year. 85% is setting pods vs. 80% a year ago while 96% is blooming vs. 94% lsat year.

NOPA reported its members crushed 216.6 million bushels of soybeans in July, while still ticking up slightly from 214.3 million bushels in June and was 10.7% above year-ago July NOPA crush of 195.7 million bushels. NOPA reported its members produced 2.532 billion pounds of soybean oil in July vs. 2.510 billion in June and 2.348 billion pounds in July last year, achieving an average soybean oil yield of 11.69 pounds/bushel vs. 11.71 in June and 12.00 in July last year. NOPA reported end July soybean oil stocks held by its members declined notably to 1.360 billion pounds from 1.501 billion in June while moving below year-ago July stocks of 1.379 billion pounds and now reflecting the lowest NOPA soybean oil stocks for the month of July in 22 years.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

Longer term fundamentals are bullish, however near-term values should struggle as recent rainfall will improve yield potential. Producers should be doing some light hedging on what product they do not have enough storage space for.

WHEAT

ANALYSIS

For the week, Chicago wheat closed $.11 higher and Kansas City wheat closed $.07 3/4 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, U.S. wheat export inspections last week were respectable at 18.1 mb, ticking up from the previous week’s 17.9 mb and were the highest of the first 11 weeks of the 2026-27 marketing year so far, while having averaged 15.9 mb/week over the last four weeks vs. last year’s 16.5 mb/week average during the same period. Cumulative wheat inspections of 143 million bushels are down 19% from last year’s 177 million vs. the USDA’s 775 million bushel export projection, reflecting an expected 15% decline from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export target, wheat inspections would need to average roughly 14.7 mb/week through the end of next May vs. last year’s 16.9 mb/week average from this point forward.

In the weekly crop progress and conditions report, spring wheat conditions rose 1% to 52% good/excellent vs. 50% expected, 51% g/e last week and 50% g/e last year. Spring wheat harvest advanced to 41% complete vs. 37% expected, 24% last week, 33% last year and 34% average. Winter wheat harvest is 96% complete vs. 95% expected, 91% last week, 93% last year and 94% average.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The forecasted post harvest rally has wheat futures testing previous highs. Producers should begin to shed some market risk into this weekly resistance as the market is unlikely to meet the carry that is built into prices and look to hedge the 2027 crop.

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE

ANALYSIS

Last week, live cattle closed $.87 lower while feeder cattle closed $2.27 lower.

The August Cattle on Feed report was bullish, with July placements down 11% from last year at 1.422 million head–well below the 6.7% decline expected. Total cattle on feed remained 1.8% above last year but was below expectations, while marketings fell 7.4% and were close to estimates. The sharply lower placements point to tighter fed-cattle supplies later this year, although current feedlot inventories remain slightly above last year and the five-year average.

Last week, fed cattle trade was active in the North at $223 to $226 live and $355 to $360 dressed, which is $2 to $7 softer live and $5 to $10 lower dressed when compared to last week. Light volume in the South so far is at $225 to $226 live, coming in $2 to $3 below last week..

The Joplin, Missouri auction on Aug. 17 saw 4,043 head trade compared to last week’s 3,680 head and last year’s 3,966. Feeder steers traded steady to $10 lower with feeder heifers $2 to $12 lower.

The Oklahoma City auction on Aug. 17 saw 3,100 head traded hands vs. the 2,632 head the prior week and the 5,115 head traded last year. Feeder steers and heifers were steady to lower.

After three consecutive weeks of boxed beef sold for export exceeding the prior year, export sales last week declined 330 loads from the prior week. At 560 loads, the export sales were only four loads below the same week last year. The year-to-date total was 25,633 loads, which were 121 loads above the year-to-date total in 2025.

The latest USDA steer carcass weights were higher than last week by 6 pounds at 967 pounds, which is 28 pounds above year-ago levels.

Net beef sales for 2026 were 9,300 mts; down 36% from the prior week and 37% from the four-week average with shipments of 12,600 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

After a $25 drop in futures, demand is improving for US beef. The COF report suggest tighter supplies into the 4th quarter of this year.

LEAN HOGS

ANALYSIS

Lean hogs closed the week $1.10 lower. Iowa/southern Minnesota weekly hog weights for the week ending Aug. 15 has weights at 282.6 pounds vs. 282.7 pounds last week and 281.1 pounds last year.

Net pork sales for 2026 were 27,300 mts; down 25% from last week and 15% below the four-week average with shipments at 27,800 mts.

STRATEGY & OUTLOOK

The forecasted rally off the weekly chart support has begun.