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BRIAN HOOPS

By Staff | Aug 25, 2017

NFA has permanently barred Christian Robert Mayer from membership and from acting as a principal of an NFA Member. Mayer was an associated person of Northstar Commodity Investment Co. LLC, an NFA member introducing broker and commodity trading advisor in Minneapolis, Minn. The Decision, issued by NFA’s Business Conduct Committee (BCC), is based on a complaint authorized by the BCC on August 11, and a settlement offer submitted by Mayer. The BCC found that Mayer engaged in unauthorized trading and transferred profitable trades from customer accounts to his personal trading account while leaving losing trades in customer accounts.

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week 10 cents lower. Last week, private exporters did not report any private sales.

Weekly export sales of corn showed a total of 28.9 mb (734,200 mt) with 2.5 mb (52,000 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year, putting total marketing year sales at 2.223 bb. This is 13 percent ahead of the previous marketing year.

In the weekly crop conditions report, NASS reported corn crop conditions at 62 percent good/excellent versus 60 percent expected, up 2 percent from 60 percent last week and still well below 74 percent last year. Illinois increased 4 percent to 62 percent good/excellent; Nebraska was up 4 percent to 63 percent; Indiana up 3 percent to 55 percent; South Dakota up 5 percent to 34 percent and North Dakota up 8 percent at 48 percent.

Iowa was down 3 percent to 61 percent.

Weekly EIA report showed weekly ethanol production has risen sharply, to the 2nd highest weekly rate on record, up 46,000 bbl/day to a near record 1.059 million bbl/day. Stocks rose to 21.8 million versus. 21.3 million last week.

An early frost during the kernel filling stage would send prices higher as a killing frost could potentially hurt yields. Seasonals show a small rally during the August timeframe, before turning lower as harvest begins in September. Look for commercial and end user interests to become buyers during the early stages of harvest as they will try to buy when the basis levels are largest.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should only make sales that address cash flow need during harvest.

Soybeans analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.07 3/4 lower. Last week, private exporters reported sale of 132,000 mts of soybeans to China; 132,000 mts of soybeans to an unknown destination and 165,000 mt optional origin sale to China.

Weekly export sales of soybeans showed a total of 49.7 mb (1,352,600 mt) with 16.7 mb (453,200 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year. This raised total sales to 2.248 bb, or 16 percent above the previous marketing year.

In the weekly crop conditions report, NASS reported U.S. soybean crop conditions were unexpectedly lowered to 59 percent good/excellent versus 60 percent expected and down 1 percent from 60 percent last week and well below 72 percent last year.

This year’s rating is the worst of the last 10 years.

Iowa’s soybean ratings fell 3 percent to 56 percent good/excellent; Illinois was down 1 percent to 63 percent while North Dakota increased 7 percent to 44 percent good/excellent and South Dakota rose 2 percent to 34 percent good/excellent.

Last year, the USDA forecast yields at 48.9 bpa with ratings at 72 percent good/excellent. This year, the USDA is pegging yields at 49.4 bpa with ratings at 59 percent good/excellent.

NOPA crush came in at 144.718 mb, above average trade estimates of 143.0 mb and much stronger than the June crush of 138.1 mb. It was also just below the all time record set in July, 2015 and represented the first year over year monthly increase since January. This was also higher than last year’s 143.7 mb.

Strategy and outlook

Producers should have made sales that address cash flow need during harvest and established downside protection on the balance.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution’s Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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